I just analyzed the latest wind forecast of ECMWF and GFS for the next days. The ECMWF looks a tiny little bit better in terms of TWD. However, the ECMWF has a better hit rate. If the GFS is closer to what we will experience, I will first sail a bit to W, and turn later faster S to correct the course.

If there is no strong negative influence from a low forming N of New Caledonia, we will lift the hook on Saturday afternoon local time. This would be at UTC Sunday morning.

In the ECMWF, the TWD starts with 119deg, which should give us an AWA of about 70deg. At this AWA MaRe runs well, especially as the waves are indicated at only around 2 m. In the following days it looks as of the TWD moves to E and later to N.

About the low N of Caledonia, it’s front side could help us with turning the wind from E towards N. Only if this low moves too fast SE, it’s backside would make us troubles.

Let’s see how all develops in the next days until departure.